What are the strategies of Stock Market Timing Systems?
Some analysts claim that they can
time the stock market and only invest during bull markets. The premise is
simple: Buy stocks when the aggregate market is climbing and sell at the onset
of a bear market. In theory, you can maximize gains and virtually eliminate
losses.
Strategies of Stock Market Timing Systems
While some say that timing the
market is virtually impossible, others claim such a feat is indeed achievable.
What techniques do they use and what proof do they have that market timing is a
practical and profitable endeavor?
1. Following the Trend
If the market moves in cycles,
then it should be possible to use technical tools to quantify those Stock Market Timing Systems trends and
determine with a measure of accuracy bull and bear market stages. A moving
average is one simple method to achieve just that.
The moving average is a line that
plots the average price of a stock over a set period. A basic trading method is
to buy when share prices rise above the long-term moving average and sell when
the price falls below.
2. The Revised FED Model
Ed Yardeni, who was the Chief
Investment Strategist for Oak Associates as well as a professor and an
economist at the Federal Reserve Bank, developed the FED model. This model
compares bond rates to equity premiums. While this strategy has exhibited
impressive returns, it still depends on the qualitative analysis of many
analysts about projected future earnings.
3. CAN SLIM
William J. O’Neil developed a
high-growth trading system that uses the acronym CAN SLIM. This strategy
dictates that you only invest in the market during bull stages, and utilizes an
innovative technique to determine when those stages occur.
But how profitable is this market
timing model? It is difficult to tell. While screening for high-growth stocks
according to the CAN SLIM methodology is quite simple with software, the
analysis of the market is quite interpretive and typically requires a visual
approach
4. Short-Term Technical Analysis
Some investors are primarily
concerned with identifying large market cycles that endure for years at a time.
Yet other traders try to isolate very narrow windows to make quick trades based
on mini-market pops and drops which may last only weeks.
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